Just a few examples: computers have been around for 60 years and parts of the industry are deep into the maturity phase of its life cycle, resembling any other aging industry. An example of this is consulting giants such as EDS, Accenture and IBM Professional Services. Other examples are the PC (OS, manufacturing, distribution) and the huge software platforms such as SAP. The telecom operators have been in this phase for a long time and now even the equipment vendors such as Ericsson with their fast growing business area Ericsson Professional Services are also reaching this phase. In this part of the industry, the key words are scale economics, operational routines, incremental process improvements and cost control. Even high profile companies such as Microsoft and Oracle are more than 30 years old.

In most developed economies the digital infrastructure is already in place and deployed. Mobile penetration is close to 100 percent; access to the Internet and PCs is as taken for granted as TV was in the late 20th century. All companies have already deployed mission critical IT/telecom systems.

The big productivity gains from the current IT/telecom systems are already captured. What company believes that they can achieve breakthrough competitive advantages because their SAP systems will be dramatically better in 10 years time compared to today? Is the PC in 2009 so much better compared to ten years ago? How long ago was it that company white collar staff stopped being chained to their desks during fixed work hours in order to be reachable by phone? Does anyone remember?

However, even though some parts of the industry are aging, there is still fervent activity at the innovation frontier. The fact that the tech sector manages a huge installed base of complex legacy systems that today have become the infrastructure of the economy does not mean that technological development has come to a halt. The radical innovations and strategic breakthroughs are still there but they are in niches and new applications, not in a better business system or a faster bus on the PC motherboard.

Today, a large part of the tech sector is a factory burdened by legacy systems and the huge problems of managing large scale operations that are very complex. The difference is that these core industries in 2009 have a higher knowledge level compared to the mines, factories and railroads of 1909. Windows Update and new releases of software from SAP may be incredibly advanced but it is the wrong place to look for important innovations or new technologies for the future.

It is a paradox that we find both the breakthroughs of tomorrow and aging core industries in the same sector. That we are unable to see the large elephant in the room is due to the fact that it does not fit with what we in the futurist profession call the mental map. Our mental map creates blind spots that cause us to miss certain shifts in the economy even though they are clearly visible.

This article is a translation from my Swedish blog post.